Coffee Shop Site Selection
The 5-minute drive-time polygon is the core loyalty zone for coffee and cafe concepts. Cannibalization happens at overlaps that would be harmless for any other category. Morning commute corridors extend drive-time reach in one direction; evening catchment is completely different. Map the real catchment before opening each new unit.
Time zones
Coffee is the most drive-time-sensitive category in retail. The decision to stop is made in seconds — it's a habit loop, not a planned trip. A customer who drives past your location every morning on the way to work will stop if the entry is convenient and the wait is predictable. Add 90 seconds to that commute and the habit doesn't form. Add a new unit 2 minutes closer to their house and the habit transfers.
This extreme proximity sensitivity cuts both ways. It means a well-sited coffee location builds extraordinary loyalty within a very small polygon. It also means that cannibalization between units happens at overlaps that would be inconsequential in any other category. A 15% polygon overlap between two QSR burger locations is a rounding error. A 15% overlap between two coffee units is a revenue conversation you'll be having at the next franchisee performance review.
Loyalty zone
Habit formation zone — the daily routine that drives 70%+ of repeat visits
Cafe primary
Deliberate trip — longer dwell concepts, specialty roasters, destination cafes
Destination only
Specialty concept or unique experience — drive time is not a barrier for this customer
Three failure modes
Coffee can tolerate less than 15% polygon overlap between units before meaningful revenue transfer begins. A radius analysis that shows two locations as "non-overlapping" because they're 1.2 miles apart may be wrong — if they're on the same arterial with no barriers between them, their 5-minute polygons will overlap substantially.
A coffee location's AM catchment and PM catchment are different polygons. Morning commute traffic patterns extend the isochrone along major arterials; evening congestion contracts it. A static radius has no concept of when your customers are actually driving — and for coffee, the AM window is the only one that matters.
Coffee trade areas near transit hubs include a large walk-shed that radius circles miscount. A station with 4,000 daily boarders within a 10-minute walk is a different opportunity than 4,000 drivers within a 10-minute drive. Conflating walk and drive catchment produces overcounting that leads to underperforming sites.
Feature breakdown
Coffee is a creature of habit and proximity. Map the 5-minute drive isochrone as your primary trade area — the zone where customers form daily routines. Any new unit within this polygon competes directly for the same repeat visit. Know the polygon before you sign the lease, not after the comp sales start declining.
A drive-time isochrone changes shape at 7:30 AM vs. noon. Morning commute corridors extend the catchment along major arterials; the evening isochrone contracts. For coffee, the AM polygon is the one that matters — map it separately to understand your true morning reach and where commuters are actually coming from.
Coffee concepts can tolerate less than 15% polygon overlap between units. More than that and you're trading revenue from your own customers. Map the overlap before signing each new lease, not after the decline sets in. The overlap zone is the population your existing unit is about to share — quantify it before committing.
Coffee trade areas near transit hubs behave differently — catchment extends to the walk shed of the station, not just the drive-time zone. Map both drive and walk isochrones to understand total access. For campus locations, the captive population inside the walk polygon may be the entire addressable market.
FAQ · Coffee shop site selection
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